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Monday, March 26, 2012

Iran-Israel Conflict : India's Balancing Act


  IN Post Independence era India has emerged as a major stakeholder in the Third-World order of Non Alignment. Non Alignment precipitated due to direct colonial experiences of India and continued to be one of the consistent features of India's foreign policy. No doubt this policy has facilitated India in distancing itself away from the unintended repercussions of being aligned to any specific super power of the then bipolar world, but in the current changed equations of the world order, New Delhi needs to reorient this mammoth pillar of Indian foreign policy. 
  
  Ever since Iran has showcased its nuclear might, it has become a hot spot of the middle east turbulence. With this the world order has taken a different posture and Indian diplomats are busy in getting India into a comfortable place. New Delhi now has to play Israel and the West on one hand and Iran on other.

  Iran holds a strategic importance for India's ambitions in middle east. Being the second best supplier of oil after Saudi Arabia, Iran has emerged as one of the biggest players to address India's energy needs. Also, India needs access to Afghanistan and central Asia. Expectations of a land route from Pakistan to access middle east markets is certainly bleak, consequent upon its inability to tackle internal security concerns and deficit of mutual trust. Holding huge reserves of oil and natural gas, Central Asia offers a lucrative ground for India to have an early firm feet. This becomes more significant due to presence of formidable competitors like China in our neighborhood. India certainly fears loosing this market to China hands down.
  
  Moreover with the recent US pledge to withdraw its exhausted troops from Afghanistan, it becomes extremely challenging for New Delhi to improvise ways to address its security concerns. After the US troops withdrawal a dangerous void will be created in Kabul. Pakistan definitely has an upper hand in taking hold of the situation for its vested interests and pose serious threats to India. Already suffering the blows of heavy recess in economy and the domestic uproar over Interventionist foreign policy, West is no more a strong wall for India to solve its cross border security crisis. No doubt Iran is going to be a key facilitator for India to tackle the void left by US soldiers in middle east and secure its borders.  India can reap the benefits due to well known animosity of Iran having Shias majority and Pakistan, a Sunni majority state.

  On the other hand Israel no doubt holds strategic relationship with India as far as defense cooperation is concerned. In India's tough times Israel has provided it with state of the art and sensitive defense equipment. After the fall of Russia in post cold war era, Israel has been holding top shares in New Delhi's defense deals, competing US. Israel also holds value having the support of the West and Arab states. Any animosity with Israel will definitely harbor frictions between India and the West. Moreover, India must not forget 'A friend in need is a friend indeed'. In Asia given the presence of major Islamic Fundamentalist states and communist China, India's relation with Israel and also with the West becomes extremely crucial. Israel is the most trusted state for India's defense deals.  India certainly cannot afford to loose such mutually beneficial cooperation. 

  Will India continue importing oil against US sanctions and giving passive support to Iran or will get aligned with Israel and the West. India certainly is not in position to take a tough stand without inflicting serious troubles, be it economic or political. Policy of Non Alignment needs a complete overhauling. India should not end the ties with Iran under the West's pressure, given its energy needs, but certainly curtail it and try its best to look for other potential suppliers with the West's help. The fact of being on top in the importer's list of Iran will be the most troublesome irritant in the eyes of West and Israel. India should take the world into confidence  that its ties are purely economic with no hidden agenda.  After all US has relations with Pakistan, a troubling neighbor for us, why can't India hold a purely economic tie with Iran, a troubling state in the eyes of America. Simply on the apprehension that Iran is developing nuclear weapons that too without any firm evidence, holds no legitimate reason for India to back off from its trade ties. 

  Whatever be the options but in coming time India has to take a clear and strong political stance. India's old economic formulas can definitely not work with the changed equations of world order any more. Non Alignment must be transformed into strategic autonomy, only to redeem its pledge of not following any state sponsored resolution and sanctions but to have a firm and independent voice. Over the years India has affirmed it's will of maintaining amiable relationships with all the countries without being biased to a particular world order. In distant future this policy will put India's will under test as the world is getting more and more polarized as the days go by.


                                                                                                          - Saurabh
"The world suffers a lot. Not because of the violence of bad people,but because of the silence of good people."

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